NFL Draft

This past week, for the first time since January, Mel Kiper Jr. came out with a new mock draft. And while he's content that much has stayed the same, some things haven't, and Kiper is ready to defend the movements, starting with:

Changes in the Top 5
Mel defends the fact that his top 5 really hasn't changed that dramatically. "I thought back on the 21st that St. Louis would take Andre Smith with the second pick, but they're still taking a tackle and it's going to be Jason Smith," he reasons.
Mel had Matthew Stafford at No. 1 overall and won't back down from that position, though with Jay Cutler drifting wildly in the wind, is Detroit a part of that conversation? Even if the Lions are, as Mel said last week, Cutler was "overhyped at the combine, he was overhyped at Senior Bowl week, he's been overhyped before he was drafted. The media, they love Jay Cutler." And Mel still loves Stafford, a guy he has said would be a No. 1 pick since he came out high school in Texas.
At No. 3, Mel previously believed that Kansas City would have to take the opportunity to take a quarterback, but "obviously, now that they have [Matt] Cassel, you take Aaron Curry there," he says. He reasons that Kansas City desperately needs an impact linebacker, and if you're a Chiefs fan (teaser alert!) he provides a nice comparison later on in this column.
At No. 4, the needs of the Seahawks have changed as well, with Kiper now saying he foresees the selection of Eugene Monroe by Seattle. "There's a number of different ways that they could go," says Mel, "but they got their defensive tackle, Colin ColeColin Cole, in free agency." That would eliminate the need to take BC's B.J. Raji at the fourth spot, and "they added [T.J.] Houshmandzadeh, so maybe they'll stay away from wide receiver," Kiper reasons.
"With Cleveland at No. 5, this is a defensive front that has to stop the run," says Kiper, "and I think B.J. Raji will allow that to happen. You're talking about arguably the most dominant college football player this year in a lot of games."
Receivers Hot at Nos. 6 & 7
Mel explains that it isn't necessarily that Michael Crabtree has fallen, but Seattle -- the most likely team to take him in the top 5 -- has filled a need for a No. 1 receiver. Having lost Carson Palmer's most frequent target, the Bengals find a new one. "I think you'll see Cincinnati take Crabtree at No. 6 and then Oakland take Maclin at No. 7," he says. While many consider Maclin a reach at No. 7, hey, Todd McShay agreed.
Nos. 8-10?
Mel likes teams drafting for need here. He doesn't believe Jacksonville is sold on David Garrard as a long-term option at quarterback, so the franchise needs to find an answer there. To do so, they'll select Mark Sanchez from USC.
"I then have Brian Orakpo to Green Bay at No. 9," says Kiper. With Green Bay going to a 3-4 defensive alignment, Orakpo could be a valuable asset as a pass-rusher who can also drop into coverage. Kiper then sees fellow defensive end Aaron Maybin from Penn State landing with the Niners as the 10th overall pick. The thing about the Top 10, however, is it's such an odd mix of talent and need, and not necessarily in that order. So Kiper was pressed on who would go first if pure talent was the issue.

The Best Players in the Draft, Period
While Kiper has had the Lions taking Stafford all along, and the Rams grabbing a tackle to replace Orlando Pace since day one, neither is the guy he considers the best pure player.
That would be Aaron Curry or Michael Crabtree.
"I think Aaron Curry and Michael Crabtree are the two best players," says Kiper. He considers it a matter of who can contribute from day one. "Curry is NFL-ready immediately, and even with Crabtree coming off the injury … three years down the road, if you were going to say who are going to be the best players, I would say it's going to be those guys."

Equality, Now!
Everybody always asks Mel not just what kind of a player a guy is, but who he's going to resemble. So we did a little chart off this year's players based on what Mel predicted this week. When asked who this year's draft prospects resemble, these are the comparisons that come to mind for Kiper.

Matthew Stafford = Bert Jones (Yeah, this guy.)

Michael Crabtree = Andre Johnson

Percy Harvin = Reggie Bush

Clay Matthews = Mike Vrabel

Alphonso Smith = Antoine Winfield

Aaron Curry = Keith Bulluck
Speaking of comparisons, Mel points out that they don't just work in terms of what kind of a player someone will be, but what evaluators see when they recall a recent draft. Which brings us to …

Joe Flacco, Part II.
One of Mel's more curious projections is that Kansas State quarterback Josh Freeman will be off the board in the first round. That's because many other experts have dropped him completely from the picture. But Mel reminds us that people don't just see Freeman for what he is. They can see him for what someone else is and was during the regular season, namely, Joe Flacco.
"This is a copycat league. Teams see one quarterback who is 6-foot-6 throwing the ball all over the place, then [there's Freeman], a kid who is also 6-foot-6 throwing the ball all over the place," says Kiper. "And Flacco came out of I-AA…Freeman came out of a non-bowl team who fired its coach, didn't have great talent around him."
Kiper says we always bash good quarterbacks when they had great players around them, "but Josh didn't have anybody at all, so let's defend him, because the stats won't equal the ability."
Speaking of copycats, last year, after Miami's dalliance with the Wildcat formation turned into a full-on romantic comedy (hey, Ricky Williams is funny!), a number of other teams tried the Wildcat formation, something made popular at Arkansas when Felix Jones and Darren McFadden were in Houston Nutt's backfield.

Wildcats! (Minus Goldie Hawn)
This week on ESPN Radio, Todd McShay criticized West Virginia quarterback Pat White for not doing any kind of work as a wide receiver during his official pro day. McShay can see scouts souring on White and ignoring him (though not completely) come draft day. For a guy with stunning athleticism, White has become one of the more intriguing aspects of the draft. Where does he fit? Kiper says he can still land high. That's because he predicts the Wildcat offense is here for a while.
"I've talked to a lot of people over the past month on this guy, and I think he goes in the late second round," says Kiper. "He's a Wildcat quarterback and that's a perfect scenario for him. He could get six, seven, eight snaps a game in that capacity, then use him in the slot and as a return man … He's an Antwaan Randle El-type player."

Does this make Miami a potential port of call?

Fallen Stars
Mel has picked some guys like Freeman and White who could rise, but that means others must fall. These are five he says will lose a little coin on draft day.
1. Derrick Williams — With as many as six or seven solid underclassmen wide receivers in the mix, Kiper says this former likely second-rounder is now out of that picture, "especially after a less-than-stellar 40 time at the combine.
2. Chase Coffman — "With so many quality tight ends in the draft," Coffman has gotten "lost in the shuffle." Mel says he could land in the fourth round.
3. Andre Smith — "As opposed to the No. 2 pick, which I once thought possible," Smith's mix of screwups and added question marks makes Mel think he will fall to being the third tackle taken.
4. Michael Johnson — He's one of the better athletes in the draft, says Mel, "but he didn't perform anywhere near that level this [past] year.
5. William Moore — The Missouri safety once near the top of Mel's Big Board has dropped a lot, partly due to a foot injury that limited him all year. This is one of those cases where coming out a year early would have helped a lot. Still, "a potential steal in Round 2."

The Curious Case of Everette Brown
Each week so far in Tuesdays With Mel, we've pointed to a position ranking. This week, we're going to choose defensive end, because that's where one of Mel's most curious picks arises. To start, here is the current rankings board at defensive end, according to Kiper.

1. Brian Orakpo, Texas
2. Aaron Maybin, Penn State
3. Tyson Jackson, LSU
4. Robert Ayers, Tennessee
5. Everette Brown, Florida State

The curious case of Everette Brown starts here. That's because when we polled experts from across the board, Mel had Brown way down the list, all the way to the No. 30 pick overall. No other expert had Brown falling into the late teens. One had him as high as No. 5! So what gives?
"He's not at the level of Orakpo and Maybin," Mel writes in his analysis. But he "should draw mid-first-round consideration."
Well, first round is still first round. All in all, you're doing a heckuva job, Brownie.

T.O.'s Draft Effect?
To end on a more positive note, we should point to the story of Brandon Pettigrew, who Mel is convinced is a higher pick than any other expert would believe (no joke). And he claims T.O. is making an assist. This isn't the first time Owens has affected positive change, but we digress.
The Oklahoma State tight end, Mel feels, "is a guy a lot of teams are going to want in the late first round." And with Buffalo picking at No. 11, and now having a young quarterback (Trent Edwards) who clearly has a pair of serious deep threats in Owens and Lee Evans, Pettigrew could become the riser of the draft, "because Buffalo is going to need a good tight end" to balance the passing game and be an outlet for its emerging QB. If it makes sense to Mel, will it make sense to Buffalo? It's one to watch.

Quick Hits
• Longtime ESPN contributor Beano Cook believes that Mel is in the wrong profession. "If Mel can handle who's going to get drafted [in the first round], he should handle the financial bailout," suggests Cook. Beano thinks bankers are "dumb." You heard it here.
• The Super Bowl champs? "I think they're going to look for a corner like Darius Butler from UConn or a tackle like Eben Britton from Arizona."
• Shout out to UConn: "I think Connecticut, with Randy Edsel, is going to have four players selected in the first two rounds. When did you ever think Connecticut could have four players selected in the first two rounds?"
Wait, is this the NFL or the NBA draft?