Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Economics 101

"The price of everything is going up."
Strictly speaking that isn't true of course, but the price of enough commonly purchased products is rising at a rate which is making some folks nervous.
Calm down.
There are two kinds of inflation.
The first is a general rise in prices caused by a legitimate market factor. For instance, the huge increase in the cost of crude oil is having a real impact on our economy. Petroleum is so vital to the economy that a major, sustained increase in its cost is bound to impact prices. Look no further than our carpet industry to see that.
However, this kind of "natural" inflation is rarely if ever sustained in a free market economy because the rational reactions of consumers and producers quickly whittles away at whatever is causing the price surge. If the price of any commodity races ahead of the market, consumption will decline -- followed by prices.
We are seeing that now with petroleum.
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The other, much more destructive cause of inflation, is that caused by the government's mismanagement of the money supply. Look to modern Zimbabwe, where a billion dollars of the local currency won't buy you a decent meal, for an example. Or, look to the U.S. of the 1970s before the Paul Volcker-engineered reform of money supply policy.
Turning on the printing presses and printing more dollars (indiscriminately loosening credit) does not make us a wealthier nation and can contribute mightily to our impoverishment.
That kind of inflation is a more serious concern and one that may be taking place to some extent now. It deserves a close watch.
To keep the economy "moving forward" the Feds seem determined to bail out every struggling big business in sight.
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The cause of most inflation is bad government. That is the case today.
There are reasons for concern, but unless government really butchers policy in the coming months, the US economy will again shake off its current doldrums.

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